Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 2003, Vol.6, No.1, pp.515-523

NONLINEAR PHENOMENA IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
An Interdisciplinary Journal

2003, Vol.6, No.1, pp.515-523

Stochastic Process Model of Mortality and Aging: Application to Longitudinal Data
I.Akushevich, L.Akushevich, K.Manton, A.Yashin

Two models for making population forecasts are presented and discussed. One of them is based on an analytical Gaussian solution of the Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equation and regression model for risk factor dynamics. The second is based on more general diffusion type stochastic differential equations. Numerical schemes for parameter estimation from longitudinal data and for forecasting are discussed for both.
Key words: Random walk model, Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equation, stochastic processes, demography, health forecasting

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