Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 2004, Vol.7, No.2, pp.159-167

NONLINEAR PHENOMENA IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
An Interdisciplinary Journal

2004, Vol.7, No.2, pp.159-167

Nonlinear Modelling of Monetary Policy of Belarus
Yury G. Imamutdzinau and Valery Ya. Asanovich

This paper is the next step in elaboration of the nonlinear model of long term economic development. The block of the real sector of economy was presented at the 10th International Workshop "Nonlinear Dynamics & Complex Structures". Currently, we have elaborated the block of financial sector, which is the real help to assess the monetary policy impact on the real sector in the long-run as well as monetary transmission mechanism in the economy of Belarus. The results of simulation let us conclude that the hypothesis of money influence on economic development in the long-run is being confirmed. The definite monetary transmission mechanism in economy is testified to that. The uncertainness of long-term period does not allow evaluating the modeling parameters for sure. That is why we consider the probable scenarios of development using the grounds of probability theory. The monetary policy of Belarus is inseparably linked with the process of economic and monetary integration with Russia. We have made an attempt to assess numerically net benefits of monetary transition of two countries on the base of the model.
Key words: nonlinear economic dynamics, long-run forecasting, monetary transmission mechanism, long-run monetary policy

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